Pacific Storm Tracker - Tropical Storm 27W (In-fa), #8

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 In-fa continues to intensify as it has begun curving northwest, and as the Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that model guidance is in better agreement on a track that takes In-fa just south of Guam as the weekend begins.    NOAA.gov photo
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In-fa continues to intensify as it has begun curving northwest, and as the Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that model guidance is in better agreement on a track that takes In-fa just south of Guam as the weekend begins. NOAA.gov photo

Pacific Storm Tracker - Tropical Storm 27W (In-fa), #8

by: Dave Ornauer | .
Stars and Stripes | .
published: November 21, 2015

4 p.m. Saturday, Nov. 21, Guam time: Typhoon In-fa is moving west away from the main Marianas islands, Guam has resumed seasonal Condition of Readiness 4, but high surf and strong winds remain in the area. High-surf and small-craft advisories remain in effect. Unless something major changes, this is PST's last update on In-fa.

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7:30 a.m. Saturday, Nov. 21, Guam time: Typhoon In-fa is making its closest point of approach to Guam, passing some 170 miles south-southwest of the island, keeping much of its fury well out of harm’s way. The island should experience 40-mph gusts plus showers, some heavy at times, as In-fa passes.

Shelters remain open at five school locations. Guam International Airport remains open with no flights canceled at the moment. Guam remains in Condition of Readiness 2; unless something changes, seasonal COR 4 will likely resume later Saturday.

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3:30 p.m. Thursday, Nov. 19, Guam time: A tropical storm watch has been issued for Guam and its surrounding waters by the National Weather Service. Tropical-storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Chu’uk lagoon, Ulul, Losap and Fananu in Chu’uk State. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Lukunor and Puluwat in Chu’uk State.

In-fa remains a severe tropical storm and is forecast to regain Category 1-equivalent typhoon strength by mid- to late-morning Friday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. In-fa is forecast to track 168 miles south-southwest of Naval Base “Big Navy” at about 1 p.m. Saturday, packing sustained 110-mph winds and 132-mph gusts at center.

At 1 p.m., In-fa was 620 miles southeast of Guam and 645 miles southeast of Saipan, headed northwest at 15 mph and packing sustained winds of 65 mph at center, NWS reported. Tropical storm-force winds extend 90 miles outward south of center and 70 miles north.

Long-range, JTWC depicts In-fa moving north on a track possibly taking it between Okinawa and Iwo-Jima in Japan by early to middle of next week.

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10:20 a.m. Thursday, Nov. 19, Guam time: In-fa has been downgraded to a tropical storm and remains on course to pass south of Guam over the weekend, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Guam and the main Marianas islands remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4, according to Guam Homeland Security. If it remains on its present course, In-fa should pass 180 miles south-southwest of Naval Base “Big Navy” at about 2 p.m. Saturday, packing sustained 115-mph winds and 144-mph gusts at center.

Stronger trade winds ahead of In-fa are expected to bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with winds between 15 and 25 mph and gusts up to 30 mph to the Marianas the next couple of days, the National Weather Service on Guam reported.

Heavier showers and thunderstorms are forecast to reach the Marianas Friday morning, continuing through Sunday morning. Rainfall is expected to be heavy at times, especially Thursday night through Saturday night.

A typhoon warning is now in effect for Ulul in Chu’uk State, and remains in effect for Chu’uk Lagoon, Losap and Fananu in Chu’uk State, NWS reported. A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Puluwat and remains in effect for Lukunor in Chu’uk State.

At 7 a.m., In-fa was 745 miles southeast of Guam and 770 miles southeast of Saipan, traveling west-northwest at 10 mph, packing sustained winds of 65 mph at center. Tropical storm-force winds extend 70 miles north of center and 90 south of center.

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1 a.m. Thursday, Nov. 19, Guam time: Just how close will Typhoon In-fa come to hitting Guam? There remains much uncertainty among dynamic model guidance, with a spread of 150 miles two days out and about 480 miles four days out, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

For the moment, In-fa remains a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, with JTWC depicting In-fa as picking up forward speed as it rushes past Guam to its south. If it remains on its current forecast track, In-fa is due to pass 158 miles south-southwest of Guam at about 2 p.m. Saturday, packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center.

 Current JTWC graphics show Guam outside of the 58-mph windbands, but that’s for now. In-fa could deviate north or it could continue moving south of the island. Guam and the main Marianas islands remain in seasonal Condition of Readiness 4.

 Out east, a typhoon warning remains in effect for Chu’uk lagoon, Losap and Fananu in Chu’uk state in Micronesia, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. A tropical storm warning and typhoon watch remain in effect for Ulul and a tropical storm warning for Lukunor in Chu’uk State.

 At 10 p.m., In-fa was 855 miles southeast of Guam and Saipan, moving west-northwest at 14 mph packing sustained 75-mph winds at center. Tropical storm-force winds extend 60 miles northwest of center and 100 miles outward elsewhere.

 

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8:20 p.m. Wednesday, Nov. 18, Guam time: In-fa very rapidly intensified into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon in its second day of existence as a tropical cyclone. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest update shows In-fa tracking yet further south of Guam than previously forecast.

 A typhoon warning is now in effect for Chu’uk Lagoon and Losap and Fananu in Chu’uk state; typhoon-force winds of 74 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours, according to the National Weather Service on Guam. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Ulul and Lukunor in Chu’uk state; winds between 39 and 73 mph are expected within 24 hours. Tropical storm warnings and watches have been canceled for Pohn’pei.

At 7 p.m., In-fa was 885 miles southeast of Guam and Saipan, moving almost due west at 12 mph packing 75-mph sustained winds at center. Tropical storm-force winds extend 80 miles outward to the northwest and 125 miles elsewhere, NWS reported.

 JTWC projects In-fa to pass 178 miles south-southwest of Naval Base “Big Navy” on Guam at about 4 p.m. Saturday, packing 121-mph sustained winds and 150-mph gusts at center, if In-fa remains on current forecast track. Guam and the main Marianas islands remain in seasonal Condition of Readiness 4. A small-craft advisory remains in effect until 6 p.m. Sunday and a high-surf advisory is in effect until noon Monday for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

 Local forecasts call for Guam to experience winds up to 40 mph or thereabouts, according to the office of the Governor of Guam, Eddie Baza Calvo. But he said in a statement that “we can’t take anything for granted,” meaning things can still change in the run-up.

 GovGuam said families should review their disaster plan and ensure their emergency supplies are up to date:

• Non-perishable food items (canned goods) and drinking water
• Battery-operated radio
• Flashlights, extra batteries
• First-aid kit
• Family needs: baby food, diapers, pet food, medication, and important documents, including mortgage, loan documents, passports, birth certificates, medical records, etc.
• Take care of the yard and store objects that can fly with heavy wind
• Gas your car and get fuel for your generators
• Get your shutters ready.

 PST remains watchful of the situation.

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